LAFAYETTE
LEOPARDSLAF
3-7 | Road
72
PENNSYLVANIA
QUAKERSPENN
5-4 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
LEOPARDS
0%
QUAKERS
100%
LEOPARDS
--
QUAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-43.0
LAFAYETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +43.0 points (Lafayette)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAF -43.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAF)
LAF By 1-7 points
0.0%
LAF By 8-14 points
0.2%
PENN By 1-7 points
0.0%
PENN By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Lafayette
106
LAFAYETTE
Pennsylvania
63
PENNSYLVANIA
Simulated Score
Lafayette
69
LAFAYETTE
Pennsylvania
73
PENNSYLVANIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Leopards
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Quakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Leopards (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -43.0
D
Sim
Quakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 8, 2025
LAF @ PENN
72 - 74
Nov 12, 2024
PENN @ LAF
63 - 65
Nov 24, 2023
LAF @ PENN
72 - 74
Nov 22, 2022
PENN @ LAF
74 - 68
Nov 16, 2021
LAF @ PENN
57 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+24.8%
Lafayette: 82.0%
vs
Pennsylvania: 57.2%
Steals (L5)
+28.2% more
Pennsylvania: 5.8
vs
Lafayette: 4.5
Assists (L5)
+24.2% more
Pennsylvania: 15.7
vs
Lafayette: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAF Score
106.0
72
PENN Score
63.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.6 / 41.6
32.0 / 38.0
Assists
15.7 / 12.7
18.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.7
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
42.5 / 42.5
42.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
57.2 / 82.0
63.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 32.6
37.0 / 35.0
Steals
5.8 / 4.5
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 12.8
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAF
Advantage
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
PENN
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAF
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
PENN
--
⚖️ Over/Under
LAF
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
PENN
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PENN
LAF
PENN
LAF
ML
53%
16-14
53%
17-15
76%
22-7
59%
19-13
ATS
63%
19-11
56%
18-14
76%
22-7
59%
19-13
TTL
70%
21-9
50%
16-16
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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