BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
11-13-4 | Road
4
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
11-15-4 | Home
7
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | -- |
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 4.00 | 0.862 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00 Ldr
GAA
4.00
1.000 Ldr
Save %
0.862
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
FLAMES
0%
SABRES
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Calgary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CGY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
CGY By 1 goal
19.7%
CGY By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Calgary
4
CALGARY
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Calgary
3
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flames
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flames (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Flames (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 8, 2025
BUF @ CGY
4 - 7
Nov 19, 2025
CGY @ BUF
6 - 2
Jan 23, 2025
BUF @ CGY
2 - 5
Nov 9, 2024
CGY @ BUF
2 - 3
Mar 24, 2024
BUF @ CGY
4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+48.9% more
Calgary: 17.3
vs
Buffalo: 11.6
Hits (L5)
+12.4% more
Calgary: 21.3
vs
Buffalo: 19.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.2%
Calgary: 56.3%
vs
Buffalo: 47.0%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+18.4% more
Buffalo: 32.4
vs
Calgary: 26.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
4
CGY Score
4.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.3 / 11.6
17.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
56.3 / 47.0
52.9 / 47.1
Hits
21.3 / 19.0
17.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
9.3 / 27.6
40.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
26.4 / 32.4
28.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
5.2 / 5.4
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
BUF
CGY
BUF
ML
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
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