UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
2-6 | Road
76
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
6-2 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
WARHAWKS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
0%
WARHAWKS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SFA -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)
ULM By 1-7 points
0.2%
ULM By 8-14 points
0.0%
SFA By 1-7 points
1.7%
SFA By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UL Monroe
65
UL MONROE
Stephen F. Austin
93
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
UL Monroe
65
UL MONROE
Stephen F. Austin
78
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 7, 2025
ULM @ SFA
76 - 96
Nov 29, 2024
SFA @ ULM
68 - 60
Dec 14, 2021
ULM @ SFA
82 - 69
Dec 12, 2020
SFA @ ULM
55 - 66
Dec 14, 2019
ULM @ SFA
59 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+51.3% more
Stephen F. Austin: 5.1
vs
UL Monroe: 3.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Stephen F. Austin: 31.9%
vs
UL Monroe: 29.2%
Turnovers (L5)
+25.9% more
UL Monroe: 12.4
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ULM Score
65.0
76
SFA Score
93.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.9 / 29.2
43.0 / 23.0
Assists
13.0 / 13.0
23.0 / 10.0
Blocks
5.1 / 3.4
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.6 / 40.6
55.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
72.5 / 72.7
62.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 34.1
41.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.1 / 6.6
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 12.4
8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
ULM
SFA
ULM
ML
59%
17-12
50%
16-16
79%
23-6
70%
21-9
ATS
59%
17-12
78%
25-7
79%
23-6
70%
21-9
TTL
62%
18-11
59%
19-13
100%
29-0
100%
30-0
