BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
14-9 | Road
121
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
15-9 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
RAPTORS
0%
CELTICS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
BOS By 1-7 points
0.5%
BOS By 8-14 points
0.1%
TOR By 1-7 points
3.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
75
BOSTON
Toronto
100
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Boston
112
BOSTON
Toronto
108
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Raptors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Raptors (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Celtics (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u225.0
Loss
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim
u225.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
TOR @ BOS
101 - 115
Jan 9, 2026
TOR @ BOS
117 - 125
Dec 20, 2025
BOS @ TOR
112 - 96
Dec 7, 2025
BOS @ TOR
121 - 113
Oct 15, 2025
TOR @ BOS
108 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+31.8% more
Toronto: 17.3
vs
Boston: 13.1
Blocks (L5)
+13.2% more
Boston: 5.5
vs
Toronto: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.9%
Boston: 81.7%
vs
Toronto: 71.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.2%
Boston: 43.3%
vs
Toronto: 34.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
75.0
121
TOR Score
100.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 43.3
41.0 / 43.0
Assists
28.2 / 27.6
22.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.8 / 5.5
3.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 53.2
49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 81.7
86.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
42.4 / 41.7
42.0 / 41.0
Steals
10.1 / 9.5
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
17.3 / 13.1
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
55%
57-47
57%
61-46
55%
48-39
53%
47-41
ATS
61%
62-40-2
59%
61-43-3
55%
48-39
53%
47-41
TTL
60%
62-42
56%
60-47
100%
87-0
100%
88-0
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