DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
16-6 | Road
115
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
7-16 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
HORNETS
0%
NUGGETS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
DEN By 1-7 points
1.7%
DEN By 8-14 points
0.3%
CHA By 1-7 points
8.0%
CHA By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
105
DENVER
Charlotte
125
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Denver
101
DENVER
Charlotte
123
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 18, 2026
CHA @ DEN
110 - 87
Dec 7, 2025
DEN @ CHA
115 - 106
Feb 20, 2025
CHA @ DEN
115 - 129
Feb 1, 2025
DEN @ CHA
107 - 104
Jan 1, 2024
CHA @ DEN
93 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+41.7% more
Charlotte: 17.4
vs
Denver: 12.3
Steals (L5)
+33.7% more
Charlotte: 8.4
vs
Denver: 6.3
Blocks (L5)
+19.4% more
Charlotte: 6.2
vs
Denver: 5.2
Assists (L5)
+18.2% more
Denver: 29.1
vs
Charlotte: 23.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
105.0
115
CHA Score
125.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 46.7
30.0 / 37.0
Assists
23.8 / 29.1
24.0 / 29.0
Blocks
6.2 / 5.2
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 53.7
45.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
81.9 / 81.3
76.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
43.9 / 41.9
47.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.4 / 6.3
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
17.4 / 12.3
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
DEN
CHA
DEN
ML
61%
60-39
54%
57-48
48%
40-44
55%
47-39
ATS
60%
59-40
63%
65-38-2
48%
40-44
55%
47-39
TTL
58%
57-42
54%
56-48-1
100%
84-0
100%
86-0
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