PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
9-14 | Road
96
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
10-13 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Portland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)
POR By 1-7 points
16.9%
POR By 8-14 points
26.2%
MEM By 1-7 points
5.8%
MEM By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
125
PORTLAND
Memphis
111
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Portland
109
PORTLAND
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o231.5
Loss
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim
u231.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
POR @ MEM
122 - 114
Feb 7, 2026
MEM @ POR
115 - 122
Feb 6, 2026
MEM @ POR
115 - 135
Dec 7, 2025
POR @ MEM
96 - 119
Mar 19, 2025
MEM @ POR
99 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+16.5% more
Portland: 6.4
vs
Memphis: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
Portland: 81.2%
vs
Memphis: 77.0%
Assists (L5)
+22.3% more
Memphis: 28.7
vs
Portland: 23.4
Steals (L5)
+8.6% more
Memphis: 6.5
vs
Portland: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
125.0
96
MEM Score
111.0
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 34.8
29.0 / 35.0
Assists
28.7 / 23.4
28.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.4 / 6.4
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
50.5 / 43.5
45.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
77.0 / 81.2
74.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
47.7 / 48.2
51.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.5 / 6.0
18.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.2 / 16.6
23.0 / 26.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
POR
MEM
POR
ML
57%
59-44
53%
56-49
50%
41-41
55%
49-40
ATS
63%
65-38
62%
65-39-1
50%
41-41
55%
49-40
TTL
70%
71-31-1
56%
58-46-1
100%
82-0
100%
89-0
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