Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Jazz OKC @ UTAH

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

22-1  |  Road

131
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

8-14  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
JAZZ
0%
THUNDER --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Utah)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

15.9%

Jazz Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

OKC By 1-7 points

10.7%

OKC By 8-14 points

3.3%

UTAH By 1-7 points

23.0%

UTAH By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
100
OKLAHOMA CITY
110
UTAH
Simulated Score
108
OKLAHOMA CITY
115
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jazz Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jazz Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jazz (+11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Jazz (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u234.0 Win
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim u234.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 UTAH @ OKC 111 - 146
Jan 7, 2026 UTAH @ OKC 125 - 129
Dec 7, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 131 - 101
Nov 21, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 144 - 112
Apr 11, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 145 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.9% more
Utah: 13.5 vs Oklahoma City: 10.6
Blocks (L5) +50.1% more
Oklahoma City: 4.8 vs Utah: 2.4
Field Goal % (L5) +8.0%
Oklahoma City: 53.7% vs Utah: 45.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 100.0 131
UTAH Score 110.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 40.9 33.0 / 50.0
Assists 28.7 / 27.2 25.0 / 32.0
Blocks 2.4 / 4.8 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 53.7 47.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 81.8 / 83.2 75.0 / 44.0
Rebounding 40.7 / 42.4 37.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.8 / 7.3 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 10.6 17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
OKC
UTAH
OKC
ML
60% 96-63
70% 80-34
48% 40-43
48% 46-49
ATS
68% 108-51
73% 83-30-1
48% 40-43
48% 46-49
TTL
75% 119-39-1
67% 76-38
100% 83-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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