PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
14-7-5 | Road
2
DALLAS
STARSDAL
19-5-5 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 1.89 | 0.931 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
1.89
--
Save %
0.931
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
STARS
0%
PENGUINS
--
STARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
PIT By 1 goal
12.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
DAL By 1 goal
19.7%
DAL By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Dallas
4
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Dallas
4
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stars
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stars (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Stars (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
DAL @ PIT
6 - 3
Dec 7, 2025
PIT @ DAL
2 - 3
Apr 5, 2025
PIT @ DAL
5 - 3
Nov 11, 2024
DAL @ PIT
7 - 1
Mar 22, 2024
PIT @ DAL
2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+30.0% more
Dallas: 5.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.6
Blocked Shots (L5)
+21.6% more
Dallas: 16.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.5
Power Play % (L5)
+13.3%
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
vs
Dallas: 27.1%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.7% more
Pittsburgh: 28.6
vs
Dallas: 25.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.0
2
DAL Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.4 / 13.5
20.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
50.3 / 51.5
46.8 / 53.2
Hits
16.5 / 18.1
17.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
2711.0 / 4036.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.8 / 28.6
23.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
5.9 / 4.6
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
PIT
DAL
PIT
ML
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
ATS
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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