Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Falcons @ Midshipmen AF @ NAVY

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-7  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 12:00 PM ET
Alumni Hall (Navy)
View Odds Details →

NAVY

MIDSHIPMENNAVY

5-5  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
MIDSHIPMEN
0%
FALCONS --
MIDSHIPMEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
NAVY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Navy)
FalconsAF (-3.5) 0 MidshipmenNAVY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

13.6%

Midshipmen Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NAVY -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

AF By 1-7 points

9.3%

AF By 8-14 points

2.7%

NAVY By 1-7 points

21.6%

NAVY By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
71
AIR FORCE
82
NAVY
Simulated Score
62
AIR FORCE
65
NAVY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Midshipmen Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Midshipmen Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Midshipmen (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Midshipmen (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 AF @ NAVY 56 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +31.9% more
Navy: 35.6 vs Air Force: 27.0
Steals (L5) +22.6% more
Navy: 6.8 vs Air Force: 5.6
Turnovers (L5) +13.1% more
Navy: 13.6 vs Air Force: 12.0
Free Throw % (L5) +9.4%
Navy: 75.1% vs Air Force: 65.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AF Score 71.0 56
NAVY Score 82.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.7 / 26.4 33.0 / 24.0
Assists 11.3 / 11.8 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.6 / 3.3 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 45.3 40.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 65.6 93.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 27.0 36.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.8 / 5.6 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 12.0 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
NAVY Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
NAVY Advantage
20-11-1 (64.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
AF
NAVY
AF
ML
79% 26-7
81% 26-6
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
ATS
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
TTL
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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