Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Owls @ Eagles FAU @ FGCU

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

OWLSFAU

5-3  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Alico Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

5-4  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
OWLS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
OWLS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
OwlsFAU (-3.5) 0 EaglesFGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Owls Cover

100.0%

Eagles Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FAU -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)

FAU By 1-7 points

0.5%

FAU By 8-14 points

2.7%

FGCU By 1-7 points

0.0%

FGCU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
82
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
49
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Simulated Score
75
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
68
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Owls Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Owls Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Owls (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Owls (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 FAU @ FGCU 81 - 76
Nov 30, 2024 FGCU @ FAU 80 - 78
Dec 30, 2023 FAU @ FGCU 68 - 72
Dec 7, 2022 FGCU @ FAU 53 - 85
Nov 20, 2019 FAU @ FGCU 70 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.1% more
Florida Atlantic: 6.2 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 3.2
Steals (L5) +82.1% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 10.6 vs Florida Atlantic: 5.8
Assists (L5) +39.2% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 17.6 vs Florida Atlantic: 12.7
Turnovers (L5) +11.6% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 13.1 vs Florida Atlantic: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAU Score 82.0 81
FGCU Score 49.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 31.4 29.0 / 29.0
Assists 17.6 / 12.7 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.2 / 6.2 0.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 44.4 51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 72.6 88.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 39.0 / 36.5 30.0 / 34.0
Steals 10.6 / 5.8 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 11.8 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
FGCU
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.2
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FGCU
FAU
FGCU
FAU
ML
58% 19-14
64% 21-12
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
ATS
61% 20-13
70% 23-10
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
TTL
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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