AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
4-4 | Road
50
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
2-5 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
0%
VAQUEROS
100%
GOVERNORS
--
VAQUEROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Austin Peay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around APSU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APSU)
APSU By 1-7 points
20.1%
APSU By 8-14 points
27.2%
RGV By 1-7 points
8.0%
RGV By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Austin Peay
81
AUSTIN PEAY
UT Rio Grande Valley
69
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Simulated Score
Austin Peay
73
AUSTIN PEAY
UT Rio Grande Valley
68
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Governors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Governors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Governors (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Governors (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 7, 2025
APSU @ RGV
50 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+25.0% more
Austin Peay: 17.5
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 13.1
Steals (L5)
+20.0% more
Austin Peay: 7.3
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 5.9
Turnovers (L5)
+17.0% more
Austin Peay: 11.0
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 9.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Austin Peay: 38.5%
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 34.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
APSU Score
81.0
50
RGV Score
69.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 38.5
24.0 / 13.0
Assists
13.1 / 17.5
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.2
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 45.8
44.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
69.5 / 68.4
82.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 35.0
45.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.9 / 7.3
5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 11.0
20.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
RGV
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
RGV
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RGV
APSU
RGV
APSU
ML
53%
16-14
53%
16-14
54%
15-13
59%
16-11
ATS
53%
16-14
57%
17-13
54%
15-13
59%
16-11
TTL
60%
18-12
57%
17-13
100%
28-0
100%
27-0