ALABAMA STATE
HORNETSALST
3-6 | Road
64
UT MARTIN
SKYHAWKSUTM
7-2 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
SKYHAWKS
0%
HORNETS
--
SKYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
UT MARTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (UT Martin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTM -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTM)
ALST By 1-7 points
0.0%
ALST By 8-14 points
0.0%
UTM By 1-7 points
0.1%
UTM By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Alabama State
56
ALABAMA STATE
UT Martin
95
UT MARTIN
Simulated Score
Alabama State
71
ALABAMA STATE
UT Martin
78
UT MARTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Skyhawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Skyhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Skyhawks (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -39.0
D
Sim
Skyhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 7, 2025
ALST @ UTM
64 - 74
Dec 11, 2024
UTM @ ALST
93 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+28.6% more
UT Martin: 44.9
vs
Alabama State: 34.9
Blocks (L5)
+16.4% more
UT Martin: 4.7
vs
Alabama State: 4.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.7%
Alabama State: 37.4%
vs
UT Martin: 27.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.3%
Alabama State: 75.9%
vs
UT Martin: 67.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALST Score
56.0
64
UTM Score
95.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.7 / 37.4
31.0 / 39.0
Assists
13.6 / 13.0
15.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.0
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
40.7 / 45.5
43.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
67.7 / 75.9
48.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
44.9 / 34.9
44.0 / 32.0
Steals
8.5 / 8.5
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 13.3
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
UTM
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
UTM
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0%
Total +/-: -8.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTM
ALST
UTM
ALST
ML
69%
22-10
65%
20-11
69%
20-9
76%
19-6
ATS
56%
18-14
65%
20-11
69%
20-9
76%
19-6
TTL
44%
14-18
52%
16-15
100%
29-0
100%
25-0
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