NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
2-7 | Road
76
SE LOUISIANA
LIONSSELA
3-6 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
100%
LIONS
0%
DEMONS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
SE LOUISIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (SE Louisiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SELA -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SELA)
NWST By 1-7 points
0.0%
NWST By 8-14 points
0.0%
SELA By 1-7 points
0.1%
SELA By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern State
55
NORTHWESTERN STATE
SE Louisiana
92
SE LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
Northwestern State
70
NORTHWESTERN STATE
SE Louisiana
75
SE LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lions (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o133.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u133.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
SELA @ NWST
66 - 69
Dec 7, 2025
NWST @ SELA
76 - 68
Feb 24, 2025
NWST @ SELA
72 - 69
Jan 18, 2025
SELA @ NWST
65 - 64
Feb 10, 2024
SELA @ NWST
69 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+40.3% more
SE Louisiana: 8.9
vs
Northwestern State: 6.4
Rebounding (L5)
+24.6% more
SE Louisiana: 33.2
vs
Northwestern State: 26.6
Blocks (L5)
+9.7% more
SE Louisiana: 2.5
vs
Northwestern State: 2.3
Assists (L5)
+8.7% more
SE Louisiana: 13.8
vs
Northwestern State: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NWST Score
55.0
76
SELA Score
92.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 35.6
16.0 / 38.0
Assists
13.8 / 12.7
9.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.3
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 41.4
44.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
73.8 / 71.1
70.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
33.2 / 26.6
25.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.9 / 6.4
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 14.3
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
SELA
9-22-0
(29.0%)
Margin: -5.4
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
SELA
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -5.4
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SELA
NWST
SELA
NWST
ML
70%
21-9
68%
21-10
66%
19-10
77%
23-7
ATS
60%
18-12
68%
21-10
67%
20-10
77%
23-7
TTL
70%
21-9
39%
12-19
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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