MANHATTAN
JASPERSMAN
4-5 | Road
68
MARIST
RED FOXESMRST
5-2 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
JASPERS
0%
RED FOXES
100%
JASPERS
--
RED FOXES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MANHATTAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Manhattan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MAN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MAN)
MAN By 1-7 points
27.2%
MAN By 8-14 points
20.1%
MRST By 1-7 points
21.6%
MRST By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Manhattan
72
MANHATTAN
Marist
69
MARIST
Simulated Score
Manhattan
63
MANHATTAN
Marist
68
MARIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jaspers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Foxes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jaspers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Red Foxes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 20, 2026
MRST @ MAN
84 - 70
Dec 7, 2025
MAN @ MRST
68 - 80
Dec 8, 2024
MRST @ MAN
82 - 75
Feb 23, 2024
MRST @ MAN
57 - 50
Dec 3, 2023
MAN @ MRST
56 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.5% more
Manhattan: 4.4
vs
Marist: 3.0
Rebounding (L5)
+14.1% more
Marist: 37.7
vs
Manhattan: 33.0
Turnovers (L5)
+8.3% more
Marist: 13.5
vs
Manhattan: 12.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.4%
Marist: 81.8%
vs
Manhattan: 78.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MAN Score
72.0
68
MRST Score
69.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.1 / 33.9
25.0 / 32.0
Assists
13.9 / 13.5
22.0 / 6.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.4
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 43.5
43.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
81.8 / 78.4
67.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
37.7 / 33.0
48.0 / 37.0
Steals
9.2 / 10.0
2.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 12.5
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MAN
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: -3.1
MRST
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MAN
11-19-1
(36.7%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: -3.1
MRST
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MAN
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +2.4
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRST
MAN
MRST
MAN
ML
55%
17-14
52%
16-15
61%
19-12
68%
21-10
ATS
74%
23-8
52%
16-15
61%
19-12
69%
22-10
TTL
52%
16-15
77%
24-7
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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