Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Stags @ Warriors FAIR @ MRMK

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

5-5  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 1:00 PM ET
Hammel Court
View Odds Details →

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

5-6  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
STAGS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
StagsFAIR (-3.5) 0 WarriorsMRMK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stags Cover

42.1%

Warriors Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRMK +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

FAIR By 1-7 points

26.8%

FAIR By 8-14 points

18.6%

MRMK By 1-7 points

23.0%

MRMK By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
87
FAIRFIELD
85
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
72
FAIRFIELD
68
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stags Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stags Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Stags (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 FAIR @ MRMK 63 - 74
Jan 25, 2025 MRMK @ FAIR 75 - 54
Jan 3, 2025 FAIR @ MRMK 54 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +38.2% more
Fairfield: 40.0 vs Merrimack: 24.7
Turnovers (L5) +22.3% more
Fairfield: 11.5 vs Merrimack: 9.0
Free Throw % (L5) +1.6%
Fairfield: 74.4% vs Merrimack: 72.8%
Blocks (L5) +42.3% more
Merrimack: 5.8 vs Fairfield: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score 87.0 63
MRMK Score 85.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 33.4 40.0 / 37.0
Assists 13.8 / 12.5 13.0 / 9.0
Blocks 5.8 / 4.1 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.5 / 41.4 47.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 74.4 81.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 24.7 / 40.0 28.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.6 / 7.2 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 11.5 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
FAIR
MRMK
FAIR
ML
47% 16-18
55% 18-15
65% 22-12
61% 20-13
ATS
53% 18-16
48% 16-17
65% 22-12
61% 20-13
TTL
62% 21-13
48% 16-17
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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