Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gaels @ Wildcats SMC @ DAV

SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

8-1  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 2:00 PM ET
John M. Belk Arena
View Odds Details →

DAVIDSON

WILDCATSDAV

7-1  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
GAELS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Saint Mary's)
GaelsSMC (-3.5) 0 WildcatsDAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gaels Cover

72.6%

Wildcats Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SMC -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)

SMC By 1-7 points

26.8%

SMC By 8-14 points

24.3%

DAV By 1-7 points

16.9%

DAV By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
58
SAINT MARY'S
52
DAVIDSON
Simulated Score
61
SAINT MARY'S
68
DAVIDSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Gaels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Gaels (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 SMC @ DAV 70 - 61
Nov 24, 2023 DAV @ SMC 55 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.3% more
Saint Mary's: 13.2 vs Davidson: 9.5
Free Throw % (L5) +17.4%
Saint Mary's: 82.4% vs Davidson: 65.0%
Rebounding (L5) +12.7% more
Saint Mary's: 37.7 vs Davidson: 32.9
Steals (L5) +50.7% more
Davidson: 7.3 vs Saint Mary's: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMC Score 58.0 70
DAV Score 52.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 33.8 30.0 / 27.0
Assists 14.2 / 13.1 9.0 / 5.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.1 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 46.4 40.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 65.0 / 82.4 53.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 37.7 29.0 / 47.0
Steals 7.3 / 4.9 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 13.2 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC Advantage
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
DAV
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
DAV
13-17-2 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
DAV
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAV
SMC
DAV
SMC
ML
64% 21-12
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
82% 23-5
ATS
48% 16-17
62% 20-12
58% 19-14
83% 24-5
TTL
52% 17-16
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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