Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Eagles @ Peacocks NIA @ SPU

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

2-6  |  Road

43
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Yanitelli Center
View Odds Details →

SAINT PETER'S

PEACOCKSSPU

3-4  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
100%
📊
PEACOCKS
0%
PURPLE EAGLES --
PEACOCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
SAINT PETER'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Saint Peter's)
Purple EaglesNIA (-3.5) 0 PeacocksSPU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Eagles Cover

9.7%

Peacocks Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SPU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SPU)

NIA By 1-7 points

6.8%

NIA By 8-14 points

1.7%

SPU By 1-7 points

18.6%

SPU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
67
NIAGARA
80
SAINT PETER'S
Simulated Score
65
NIAGARA
68
SAINT PETER'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Peacocks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Peacocks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Peacocks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Peacocks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 NIA @ SPU 43 - 71
Mar 6, 2025 NIA @ SPU 78 - 68
Jan 10, 2025 SPU @ NIA 60 - 70
Feb 2, 2024 NIA @ SPU 68 - 59
Dec 1, 2023 SPU @ NIA 72 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +93.1% more
Saint Peter's: 9.7 vs Niagara: 5.0
Rebounding (L5) +24.1% more
Saint Peter's: 34.0 vs Niagara: 27.4
Free Throw % (L5) +20.5%
Saint Peter's: 83.6% vs Niagara: 63.1%
Blocks (L5) +21.5% more
Niagara: 3.5 vs Saint Peter's: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIA Score 67.0 43
SPU Score 80.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.1 / 26.3 40.0 / 19.0
Assists 10.9 / 12.0 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.5 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 36.6 / 40.6 47.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 83.6 / 63.1 79.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 27.4 31.0 / 29.0
Steals 9.7 / 5.0 13.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 11.2 9.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
SPU Advantage
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
SPU Advantage
16-11-1 (59.3%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
SPU
10-18-0
O: 35.7% / U: 64.3% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SPU
NIA
SPU
NIA
ML
64% 18-10
55% 16-13
71% 20-8
72% 21-8
ATS
71% 20-8
69% 20-9
71% 20-8
72% 21-8
TTL
61% 17-11
55% 16-13
100% 28-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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