UTSA
ROADRUNNERSUTSA
4-4 | Road
55
ALABAMA
CRIMSON TIDEALA
6-2 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
CRIMSON TIDE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)
UTSA By 1-7 points
0.0%
UTSA By 8-14 points
0.0%
ALA By 1-7 points
0.0%
ALA By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UTSA
34
UTSA
Alabama
76
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
UTSA
63
UTSA
Alabama
88
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Crimson Tide
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Crimson Tide
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Crimson Tide (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim
Crimson Tide (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 7, 2025
UTSA @ ALA
55 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+60.4% more
Alabama: 18.3
vs
UTSA: 11.4
Blocks (L5)
+52.2% more
Alabama: 8.1
vs
UTSA: 5.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+13.7%
Alabama: 50.3%
vs
UTSA: 36.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.8%
Alabama: 37.8%
vs
UTSA: 29.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score
34.0
55
ALA Score
76.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 29.0
28.0 / 24.0
Assists
18.3 / 11.4
22.0 / 8.0
Blocks
8.1 / 5.3
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.3 / 36.6
39.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 75.9
85.0 / 44.0
Rebounding
41.8 / 40.8
57.0 / 41.0
Steals
5.7 / 7.7
15.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 10.5
5.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
ALA
Advantage
25-10-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
ALA
Advantage
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
UTSA
ALA
UTSA
ML
63%
22-13
83%
24-5
58%
19-14
48%
14-15
ATS
60%
21-14
72%
21-8
58%
19-14
50%
15-15
TTL
63%
22-13
66%
19-10
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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