Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dons @ Bulldogs SF @ MSST

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

6-4  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 4:00 PM ET
Cadence Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

4-5  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
DONS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
DONS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Mississippi State)
DonsSF (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dons Cover

9.7%

Bulldogs Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

SF By 1-7 points

6.8%

SF By 8-14 points

1.7%

MSST By 1-7 points

18.6%

MSST By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
64
SAN FRANCISCO
77
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
72
SAN FRANCISCO
76
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 SF @ MSST 65 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +53.7% more
Mississippi State: 6.3 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Rebounding (L5) +22.8% more
Mississippi State: 41.9 vs San Francisco: 34.1
Blocks (L5) +9.6% more
Mississippi State: 5.5 vs San Francisco: 5.0
Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Mississippi State: 45.5% vs San Francisco: 41.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 64.0 65
MSST Score 77.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 34.8 29.0 / 24.0
Assists 13.0 / 15.0 8.0 / 12.0
Blocks 5.5 / 5.0 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 41.9 39.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 68.3 25.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 41.9 / 34.1 40.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.3 / 4.1 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 11.8 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
SF
MSST
SF
ML
66% 21-11
39% 13-20
55% 17-14
64% 21-12
ATS
56% 18-14
42% 14-19
55% 17-14
64% 21-12
TTL
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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