Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lancers @ Bears LONG @ MORG

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

5-5  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 4:00 PM ET
Hill Field House
View Odds Details →

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

1-6  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
LANCERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MORGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Morgan State)
LancersLONG (-3.5) 0 BearsMORG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lancers Cover

38.2%

Bears Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MORG -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORG)

LONG By 1-7 points

21.6%

LONG By 8-14 points

10.7%

MORG By 1-7 points

27.2%

MORG By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
67
LONGWOOD
70
MORGAN STATE
Simulated Score
68
LONGWOOD
75
MORGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 LONG @ MORG 84 - 80
Nov 9, 2024 MORG @ LONG 66 - 84
Dec 3, 2023 LONG @ MORG 88 - 54
Dec 11, 2021 MORG @ LONG 55 - 94
Dec 7, 2019 LONG @ MORG 65 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +32.3% more
Longwood: 8.5 vs Morgan State: 5.8
Turnovers (L5) +30.9% more
Longwood: 14.1 vs Morgan State: 9.7
Blocks (L5) +25.9% more
Longwood: 2.8 vs Morgan State: 2.1
Rebounding (L5) +15.4% more
Longwood: 37.0 vs Morgan State: 31.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LONG Score 67.0 84
MORG Score 70.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 21.8 / 29.5 26.0 / 47.0
Assists 12.4 / 13.4 13.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.1 / 2.8 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 49.2 46.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 77.8 91.0 / 66.0
Rebounding 31.3 / 37.0 27.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.8 / 8.5 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 14.1 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LONG Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
MORG
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LONG
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORG
LONG
MORG
LONG
ML
50% 14-14
65% 20-11
58% 14-10
68% 21-10
ATS
50% 14-14
68% 21-10
58% 14-10
68% 21-10
TTL
50% 14-14
65% 20-11
100% 24-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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