Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / River Hawks @ Minutemen UML @ MASS

UMASS LOWELL

RIVER HAWKSUML

3-6  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 4:00 PM ET
Mullins Center
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

MINUTEMENMASS

5-3  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
RIVER HAWKS
0%
📊
MINUTEMEN
100%
RIVER HAWKS --
MINUTEMEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
UMASS LOWELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (UMass Lowell)
River HawksUML (-3.5) 0 MinutemenMASS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

River Hawks Cover

91.9%

Minutemen Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UML -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UML)

UML By 1-7 points

16.9%

UML By 8-14 points

26.2%

MASS By 1-7 points

5.8%

MASS By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
90
UMASS LOWELL
76
MASSACHUSETTS
Simulated Score
68
UMASS LOWELL
72
MASSACHUSETTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI River Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Minutemen Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI River Hawks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Minutemen (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 UML @ MASS 60 - 80
Dec 7, 2024 UML @ MASS 96 - 83
Dec 9, 2023 UML @ MASS 77 - 91
Dec 8, 2022 UML @ MASS 85 - 80
Nov 24, 2021 UML @ MASS 81 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.3% more
UMass Lowell: 3.5 vs Massachusetts: 1.8
Rebounding (L5) +13.2% more
UMass Lowell: 40.8 vs Massachusetts: 35.4
Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
UMass Lowell: 49.9% vs Massachusetts: 46.7%
Steals (L5) +21.7% more
Massachusetts: 5.9 vs UMass Lowell: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UML Score 90.0 60
MASS Score 76.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 25.7 22.0 / 25.0
Assists 16.2 / 13.6 20.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.8 / 3.5 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 49.9 46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 65.1 / 66.0 71.0 / 48.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 40.8 39.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.9 / 4.8 13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 13.0 13.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
98%MONEY2%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UML
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
MASS Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UML Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
MASS
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.2
MASS
20-12-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
UML
MASS
UML
ML
44% 14-18
70% 23-10
68% 21-10
58% 19-14
ATS
47% 15-17
70% 23-10
68% 21-10
58% 19-14
TTL
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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