Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Lions @ Blue Demons UAPB @ DEP

ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

GOLDEN LIONSUAPB

1-8  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 9:00 PM ET
Wintrust Arena
View Odds Details →

DEPAUL

BLUE DEMONSDEP

5-3  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
100%
📊
BLUE DEMONS
0%
GOLDEN LIONS --
BLUE DEMONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
DEPAUL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (DePaul)
Golden LionsUAPB (-3.5) 0 Blue DemonsDEP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Lions Cover

2.9%

Blue Demons Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEP -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEP)

UAPB By 1-7 points

2.2%

UAPB By 8-14 points

0.4%

DEP By 1-7 points

9.3%

DEP By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
65
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
84
DEPAUL
Simulated Score
63
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
78
DEPAUL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Demons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Demons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Demons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Blue Demons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 UAPB @ DEP 72 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +8.1% more
DePaul: 16.7 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 15.5
Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
DePaul: 45.7% vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 40.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
DePaul: 34.3% vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 29.2%
Blocks (L5) +50.1% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 6.0 vs DePaul: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score 65.0 72
DEP Score 84.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 29.2 17.0 / 38.0
Assists 16.7 / 15.5 13.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.0 / 6.0 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 40.2 40.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 67.6 71.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 33.4 33.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.9 / 8.1 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 14.3 7.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
DEP Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
DEP Advantage
18-12-2 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -0.2
DEP
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6% Total +/-: -5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEP
UAPB
DEP
UAPB
ML
59% 19-13
74% 23-8
80% 24-6
73% 19-7
ATS
50% 16-16
73% 22-8-1
80% 24-6
73% 19-7
TTL
53% 17-15
68% 21-10
100% 30-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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