Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hawks @ Eagles UMES @ AMER

MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

HAWKSUMES

4-8  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 2:00 PM ET
Bender Arena
View Odds Details →

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

7-4  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
HAWKS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (American University)
HawksUMES (-3.5) 0 EaglesAMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

6.7%

Eagles Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AMER -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AMER)

UMES By 1-7 points

4.8%

UMES By 8-14 points

1.1%

AMER By 1-7 points

15.3%

AMER By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
62
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
77
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
65
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
72
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o131.0 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u131.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 UMES @ AMER 60 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +66.9% more
American University: 8.2 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 4.9
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
American University: 74.0% vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 70.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
American University: 34.3% vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 30.4%
Blocks (L5) +66.6% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 3.5 vs American University: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UMES Score 62.0 60
AMER Score 77.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 30.4 48.0 / 50.0
Assists 11.8 / 15.5 18.0 / 17.0
Blocks 1.2 / 3.5 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 47.0 47.0 / 62.0
Free Throw % 74.0 / 70.0 75.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 32.9 28.0 / 24.0
Steals 8.2 / 4.9 14.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 13.1 9.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMES
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
AMER Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMES
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
AMER Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UMES
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.5
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AMER
UMES
AMER
UMES
ML
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
81% 21-5
ATS
59% 19-13
69% 22-10
62% 20-12
81% 21-5
TTL
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
100% 32-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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