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NORTHERN ARIZONA

LUMBERJACKSNAU

4-4  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Scheels Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA STATE

BISONNDSU

7-3  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
📊
BISON
0%
LUMBERJACKS --
BISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (North Dakota State)
LumberjacksNAU (-3.5) 0 BisonNDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

1.1%

Bison Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NDSU -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)

NAU By 1-7 points

0.8%

NAU By 8-14 points

0.1%

NDSU By 1-7 points

4.8%

NDSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
72
NORTHERN ARIZONA
95
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
68
NORTHERN ARIZONA
72
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bison Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bison Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bison (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Bison (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 NAU @ NDSU 68 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +17.0% more
North Dakota State: 8.8 vs Northern Arizona: 7.5
Free Throw % (L5) +14.4%
North Dakota State: 77.5% vs Northern Arizona: 63.1%
Assists (L5) +12.8% more
North Dakota State: 15.4 vs Northern Arizona: 13.6
Blocks (L5) +13.6% more
Northern Arizona: 3.5 vs North Dakota State: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAU Score 72.0 68
NDSU Score 95.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 35.0 30.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.4 / 13.6 11.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 47.5 41.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 77.5 / 63.1 61.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 36.2 / 35.6 42.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.8 / 7.5 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 11.6 16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
NDSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
NDSU Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -2.3
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
NAU
NDSU
NAU
ML
49% 17-18
62% 20-12
59% 20-14
81% 26-6
ATS
54% 19-16
62% 20-12
59% 20-14
81% 26-6
TTL
43% 15-20
66% 21-11
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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