NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
15-10-3 | Road
2
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
16-9-2 | Home
0
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
J.J. Moser
#90 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
| J.J. Moser | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00
GAA
--
1.000
Save %
--
1
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
100%
LIGHTNING
0%
ISLANDERS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
NYI By 1 goal
12.1%
NYI By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TB By 1 goal
19.7%
TB By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lightning
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lightning (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Lightning (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
TB @ NYI
2 - 3
Dec 6, 2025
NYI @ TB
2 - 0
Dec 2, 2025
TB @ NYI
1 - 2
Apr 1, 2025
TB @ NYI
4 - 1
Mar 29, 2025
NYI @ TB
3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+13.1% more
Tampa Bay: 4.4
vs
New York: 3.9
Power Play % (L5)
+1.8%
Tampa Bay: 17.5%
vs
New York: 15.7%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+46.0% more
New York: 16.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 9.1
Hits (L5)
+20.3% more
New York: 18.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYI Score
3.0
2
TB Score
4.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
9.1 / 16.9
10.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
47.2 / 49.7
57.4 / 42.6
Hits
14.8 / 18.5
21.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
17.5 / 15.7
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
32.6 / 33.7
32.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 3.9
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYI
TB
NYI
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
67%
2-1
100%
2-0-1
100%
3-0
100%
2-0-1
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