ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
13-11 | Road
131
WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
3-18 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
WIZARDS
100%
HAWKS
--
WIZARDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
13.7%
ATL By 8-14 points
24.3%
WSH By 1-7 points
4.0%
WSH By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Washington
96
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Atlanta
107
ATLANTA
Washington
118
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wizards
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Wizards (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u237.0
Loss
Proj Total: 208.0
D
Sim
u237.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
WSH @ ATL
96 - 126
Feb 24, 2026
WSH @ ATL
98 - 119
Dec 6, 2025
ATL @ WSH
131 - 116
Nov 25, 2025
ATL @ WSH
113 - 132
Feb 8, 2025
ATL @ WSH
125 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+30.2% more
Atlanta: 9.5
vs
Washington: 6.6
Assists (L5)
+21.4% more
Atlanta: 30.2
vs
Washington: 23.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.6%
Atlanta: 81.6%
vs
Washington: 75.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Atlanta: 37.5%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
112.0
131
WSH Score
96.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 37.5
45.0 / 33.0
Assists
23.8 / 30.2
29.0 / 36.0
Blocks
6.2 / 3.2
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 47.0
51.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
75.1 / 81.6
89.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
42.3 / 42.0
26.0 / 45.0
Steals
6.6 / 9.5
6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 15.5
20.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATL
WSH
ATL
ML
70%
112-49
50%
52-52
47%
39-44
55%
48-40
ATS
69%
111-49-1
53%
55-48-1
47%
39-44
55%
48-40
TTL
74%
119-41-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
83-0
100%
88-0
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