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SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

5-17  |  Road

127
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

14-9  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
HEAT
0%
KINGS --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Miami)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

3.6%

Heat Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

SAC By 1-7 points

2.7%

SAC By 8-14 points

0.5%

MIA By 1-7 points

10.7%

MIA By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
104
SACRAMENTO
122
MIAMI
Simulated Score
115
SACRAMENTO
118
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Heat Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Heat Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Heat (-9) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Heat (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u242.0 Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim u242.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 MIA @ SAC 130 - 117
Dec 6, 2025 SAC @ MIA 127 - 111
Jan 6, 2025 MIA @ SAC 118 - 123
Nov 4, 2024 SAC @ MIA 111 - 110
Feb 26, 2024 MIA @ SAC 121 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +21.5% more
Miami: 44.9 vs Sacramento: 37.0
Assists (L5) +16.0% more
Miami: 27.7 vs Sacramento: 23.9
Turnovers (L5) +15.6% more
Miami: 13.7 vs Sacramento: 11.8
Blocks (L5) +15.1% more
Miami: 6.7 vs Sacramento: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 104.0 127
MIA Score 122.0 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 31.0 29.0 / 42.0
Assists 27.7 / 23.9 23.0 / 24.0
Blocks 6.7 / 5.8 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 44.3 48.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 79.5 / 64.8 63.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 44.9 / 37.0 41.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.7 / 10.3 5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 11.8 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
SAC
MIA
SAC
ML
48% 46-50
55% 55-45
59% 48-34
61% 50-32
ATS
51% 49-47
54% 52-45-3
59% 48-34
61% 50-32
TTL
59% 57-39
58% 57-42-1
100% 82-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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