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NORFOLK STATE

SPARTANSNORF

4-5  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 2:00 PM ET
Atlantic Union Bank Center
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

6-4  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
DUKES
0%
SPARTANS --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
90.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (James Madison)
SpartansNORF (-3.5) 0 DukesJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

2.3%

Dukes Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JMU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

NORF By 1-7 points

1.7%

NORF By 8-14 points

0.3%

JMU By 1-7 points

8.0%

JMU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
35
NORFOLK STATE
55
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
65
NORFOLK STATE
78
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 90.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 NORF @ JMU 67 - 68
Nov 9, 2024 JMU @ NORF 69 - 83
Nov 27, 2020 NORF @ JMU 83 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +39.9% more
James Madison: 4.8 vs Norfolk State: 3.4
Free Throw % (L5) +22.3%
James Madison: 74.9% vs Norfolk State: 52.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
James Madison: 38.5% vs Norfolk State: 29.3%
Turnovers (L5) +12.0% more
Norfolk State: 10.3 vs James Madison: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NORF Score 35.0 67
JMU Score 55.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 29.3 28.0 / 38.0
Assists 13.5 / 13.7 13.0 / 6.0
Blocks 4.8 / 3.4 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.2 / 47.2 44.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 52.6 55.0 / 47.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 35.6 30.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.8 / 6.4 14.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 10.3 8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NORF
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
JMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NORF Advantage
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1% Total +/-: +4.6
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
NORF
JMU
NORF
ML
64% 21-12
67% 20-10
66% 21-11
71% 20-8
ATS
67% 22-11
63% 19-11
66% 21-11
72% 21-8
TTL
67% 22-11
60% 18-12
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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