Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Redhawks @ Mocs SEMO @ UTC

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

REDHAWKSSEMO

3-6  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 4:30 PM ET
McKenzie Arena
View Odds Details →

CHATTANOOGA

MOCSUTC

4-4  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
100%
📊
MOCS
0%
REDHAWKS --
MOCS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
CHATTANOOGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Chattanooga)
RedhawksSEMO (-3.5) 0 MocsUTC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redhawks Cover

11.5%

Mocs Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTC -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTC)

SEMO By 1-7 points

8.0%

SEMO By 8-14 points

2.2%

UTC By 1-7 points

20.1%

UTC By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
82
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
94
CHATTANOOGA
Simulated Score
69
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
77
CHATTANOOGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mocs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mocs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mocs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Mocs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 SEMO @ UTC 74 - 70
Nov 17, 2024 UTC @ SEMO 87 - 82
Nov 26, 2023 SEMO @ UTC 56 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.3% more
Chattanooga: 16.3 vs Southeast Missouri State: 13.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.3%
Chattanooga: 33.7% vs Southeast Missouri State: 21.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.9%
Chattanooga: 78.8% vs Southeast Missouri State: 73.9%
Blocks (L5) +55.1% more
Southeast Missouri State: 3.1 vs Chattanooga: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score 82.0 74
UTC Score 94.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 21.4 41.0 / 36.0
Assists 16.3 / 13.3 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.4 / 3.1 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 46.5 50.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 73.9 76.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 35.9 27.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.9 / 7.2 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 12.4 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
UTC
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
UTC
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -2.4
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTC
SEMO
UTC
SEMO
ML
48% 15-16
64% 21-12
53% 16-14
50% 15-15
ATS
52% 16-15
67% 22-11
55% 17-14
50% 15-15
TTL
77% 24-7
58% 19-14
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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