WILLIAM & MARY
TRIBEW&M
8-2 | Road
86
GEORGE WASHINGTON
REVOLUTIONARIESGW
7-2 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
TRIBE
0%
REVOLUTIONARIES
100%
TRIBE
--
REVOLUTIONARIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (William & Mary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around W&M -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (W&M)
W&M By 1-7 points
4.0%
W&M By 8-14 points
12.2%
GW By 1-7 points
0.6%
GW By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
William & Mary
73
WILLIAM & MARY
George Washington
49
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
William & Mary
68
WILLIAM & MARY
George Washington
75
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tribe
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Revolutionaries
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tribe (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Revolutionaries (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
W&M @ GW
86 - 99
Nov 11, 2023
W&M @ GW
89 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+28.7% more
William & Mary: 19.7
vs
George Washington: 14.0
Blocks (L5)
+27.8% more
William & Mary: 3.6
vs
George Washington: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+26.7% more
William & Mary: 15.4
vs
George Washington: 11.3
Steals (L5)
+23.9% more
William & Mary: 9.0
vs
George Washington: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
W&M Score
73.0
86
GW Score
49.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 37.3
22.0 / 32.0
Assists
14.0 / 19.7
23.0 / 24.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.6
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 51.9
53.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
78.9 / 77.9
79.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
35.9 / 33.2
38.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.8 / 9.0
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 15.4
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
W&M
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
GW
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
W&M
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
GW
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
GW
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GW
W&M
GW
W&M
ML
63%
22-13
55%
17-14
60%
21-14
61%
19-12
ATS
69%
24-11
63%
19-11-1
60%
21-14
61%
19-12
TTL
60%
21-14
61%
19-12
100%
35-0
100%
31-0
