SOUTH DAKOTA
COYOTESSDAK
5-4 | Road
87
NORTHERN COLORADO
BEARSUNCO
8-1 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
COYOTES
0%
BEARS
100%
COYOTES
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SOUTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (South Dakota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SDAK -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDAK)
SDAK By 1-7 points
25.3%
SDAK By 8-14 points
26.2%
UNCO By 1-7 points
13.7%
UNCO By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota
67
SOUTH DAKOTA
Northern Colorado
59
NORTHERN COLORADO
Simulated Score
South Dakota
73
SOUTH DAKOTA
Northern Colorado
76
NORTHERN COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Coyotes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Coyotes (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
SDAK @ UNCO
87 - 89
Dec 7, 2021
SDAK @ UNCO
69 - 74
Dec 20, 2019
UNCO @ SDAK
87 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+42.8% more
South Dakota: 8.6
vs
Northern Colorado: 4.9
Blocks (L5)
+38.5% more
South Dakota: 2.9
vs
Northern Colorado: 1.8
Turnovers (L5)
+35.1% more
South Dakota: 15.0
vs
Northern Colorado: 9.8
Assists (L5)
+60.1% more
Northern Colorado: 18.4
vs
South Dakota: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDAK Score
67.0
87
UNCO Score
59.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.5 / 27.6
45.0 / 20.0
Assists
18.4 / 11.5
17.0 / 5.0
Blocks
1.8 / 2.9
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 43.2
59.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
85.0 / 68.0
56.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
37.0 / 38.8
28.0 / 31.0
Steals
4.9 / 8.6
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 15.0
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDAK
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
UNCO
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDAK
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
UNCO
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: -1.1
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCO
SDAK
UNCO
SDAK
ML
50%
16-16
70%
21-9
66%
21-11
63%
19-11
ATS
53%
17-15
70%
21-9
66%
21-11
63%
19-11
TTL
50%
16-16
67%
20-10
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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