Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bobcats @ Golden Eagles MTST @ ORU

MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

4-5  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Mabee Center
View Odds Details →

ORAL ROBERTS

GOLDEN EAGLESORU

3-7  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
BOBCATS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
ORAL ROBERTS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Oral Roberts)
BobcatsMTST (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesORU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

0.2%

Golden Eagles Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORU -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORU)

MTST By 1-7 points

0.1%

MTST By 8-14 points

0.0%

ORU By 1-7 points

1.4%

ORU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
52
MONTANA STATE
81
ORAL ROBERTS
Simulated Score
72
MONTANA STATE
78
ORAL ROBERTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 MTST @ ORU 68 - 72
Jan 3, 2024 ORU @ MTST 82 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.9% more
Oral Roberts: 15.3 vs Montana State: 10.3
Blocks (L5) +16.2% more
Oral Roberts: 2.9 vs Montana State: 2.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Oral Roberts: 39.8% vs Montana State: 36.1%
Steals (L5) +30.9% more
Montana State: 7.4 vs Oral Roberts: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 52.0 68
ORU Score 81.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 36.1 25.0 / 30.0
Assists 10.6 / 11.7 10.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.5 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 45.1 40.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 76.6 92.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 29.7 / 34.3 35.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.1 / 7.4 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 10.3 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
ORU
10-23-0 (30.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
ORU
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
ORU
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORU
MTST
ORU
MTST
ML
85% 28-5
52% 16-15
73% 24-9
67% 20-10
ATS
82% 27-6
52% 16-15
73% 24-9
67% 20-10
TTL
61% 20-13
65% 20-11
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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