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UNC ASHEVILLE

BULLDOGSUNCA

4-5  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 1:00 PM ET
Lenovo Center
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

6-3  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
WOLFPACK
0%
BULLDOGS --
WOLFPACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (NC State)
BulldogsUNCA (-3.5) 0 WolfpackNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

13.6%

Wolfpack Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCSU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

UNCA By 1-7 points

9.3%

UNCA By 8-14 points

2.7%

NCSU By 1-7 points

21.6%

NCSU By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
66
UNC ASHEVILLE
77
NC STATE
Simulated Score
65
UNC ASHEVILLE
80
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolfpack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Wolfpack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 UNCA @ NCSU 63 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +65.9% more
NC State: 2.7 vs UNC Asheville: 1.6
Steals (L5) +41.4% more
NC State: 9.2 vs UNC Asheville: 6.5
Assists (L5) +36.9% more
NC State: 14.5 vs UNC Asheville: 10.6
Free Throw % (L5) +7.7%
NC State: 78.5% vs UNC Asheville: 70.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCA Score 66.0 63
NCSU Score 77.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.9 / 40.1 29.0 / 42.0
Assists 14.5 / 10.6 21.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.7 / 1.6 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 49.7 48.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 70.9 80.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 29.8 / 30.9 38.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.2 / 6.5 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 12.6 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCA
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
NCSU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCA Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
NCSU
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: -2.8
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
UNCA
NCSU
UNCA
ML
59% 20-14
53% 16-14
55% 18-15
63% 19-11
ATS
71% 24-10
57% 17-13
55% 18-15
63% 19-11
TTL
71% 24-10
60% 18-12
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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