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NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

6-1  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 4:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Abilene)
View Odds Details →

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

6-3  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
AGGIES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Abilene Christian)
AggiesNMSU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsACU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

0.6%

Wildcats Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ACU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ACU)

NMSU By 1-7 points

0.5%

NMSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

ACU By 1-7 points

3.3%

ACU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
55
NEW MEXICO STATE
80
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Simulated Score
65
NEW MEXICO STATE
72
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 NMSU @ ACU 69 - 77
Dec 4, 2024 ACU @ NMSU 78 - 70
Mar 12, 2022 ACU @ NMSU 52 - 66
Jan 15, 2022 ACU @ NMSU 63 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +63.9% more
Abilene Christian: 11.3 vs New Mexico State: 6.9
Blocks (L5) +58.4% more
Abilene Christian: 4.4 vs New Mexico State: 2.8
Assists (L5) +14.0% more
Abilene Christian: 15.4 vs New Mexico State: 13.5
Turnovers (L5) +12.6% more
Abilene Christian: 13.6 vs New Mexico State: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 55.0 69
ACU Score 80.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 29.4 47.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.4 / 13.5 10.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.8 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 41.9 50.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 66.1 / 73.0 83.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 41.5 29.0 / 29.0
Steals 11.3 / 6.9 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 12.0 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
ACU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ACU
NMSU
ACU
NMSU
ML
67% 22-11
61% 19-12
70% 23-10
67% 20-10
ATS
55% 18-15
65% 20-11
70% 23-10
67% 20-10
TTL
58% 19-14
45% 14-17
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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