SOUTHERN UTAH
THUNDERBIRDSSUU
4-6 | Road
70
OREGON STATE
BEAVERSORST
4-5 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
BEAVERS
0%
THUNDERBIRDS
--
BEAVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-50.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +50.0 points (Oregon State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORST -50.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)
SUU By 1-7 points
0.0%
SUU By 8-14 points
0.0%
ORST By 1-7 points
0.0%
ORST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Utah
57
SOUTHERN UTAH
Oregon State
107
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
Southern Utah
62
SOUTHERN UTAH
Oregon State
74
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Beavers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beavers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Beavers (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -50.0
D
Sim
Beavers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
SUU @ ORST
70 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+49.2% more
Oregon State: 6.2
vs
Southern Utah: 4.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Oregon State: 39.1%
vs
Southern Utah: 32.5%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.4%
Oregon State: 82.5%
vs
Southern Utah: 77.2%
Steals (L5)
+25.4% more
Southern Utah: 6.7
vs
Oregon State: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SUU Score
57.0
70
ORST Score
107.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.1 / 32.5
42.0 / 30.0
Assists
14.5 / 18.8
15.0 / 18.0
Blocks
6.2 / 4.2
10.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 47.9
52.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
82.5 / 77.2
79.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
32.3 / 40.8
33.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.0 / 6.7
9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 11.9
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
ORST
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
ORST
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +3.5
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
SUU
ORST
SUU
ML
45%
15-18
61%
19-12
59%
19-13
68%
21-10
ATS
48%
16-17
71%
22-9
59%
19-13
69%
22-10
TTL
55%
18-15
52%
16-15
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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