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OKLAHOMA STATE

COWBOYSOKST

8-0  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 7:30 PM ET
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GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

5-3  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
100%
📊
LOPES
0%
COWBOYS --
LOPES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Grand Canyon)
CowboysOKST (-3.5) 0 LopesGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

3.6%

Lopes Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GCU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)

OKST By 1-7 points

2.7%

OKST By 8-14 points

0.5%

GCU By 1-7 points

10.7%

GCU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
53
OKLAHOMA STATE
71
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
68
OKLAHOMA STATE
72
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lopes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lopes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Lopes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 OKST @ GCU 84 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.6% more
Grand Canyon: 3.8 vs Oklahoma State: 2.6
Steals (L5) +17.0% more
Grand Canyon: 8.0 vs Oklahoma State: 6.8
Assists (L5) +39.4% more
Oklahoma State: 17.4 vs Grand Canyon: 10.6
Rebounding (L5) +14.0% more
Oklahoma State: 40.8 vs Grand Canyon: 35.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKST Score 53.0 84
GCU Score 71.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 22.8 / 31.4 29.0 / 31.0
Assists 10.6 / 17.4 20.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.8 / 2.6 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 49.8 46.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 74.6 / 74.7 62.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 40.8 34.0 / 32.0
Steals 8.0 / 6.8 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 14.2 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
GCU Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKST
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
GCU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKST
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.9
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
OKST
GCU
OKST
ML
66% 21-11
60% 21-14
68% 21-10
66% 21-11
ATS
72% 23-9
57% 20-15
68% 21-10
66% 21-11
TTL
44% 14-18
57% 20-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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