Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Quakers @ Wildcats PENN @ VILL

PENNSYLVANIA

QUAKERSPENN

5-4  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

7-1  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
QUAKERS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
QUAKERS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
VILLANOVA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Villanova)
QuakersPENN (-3.5) 0 WildcatsVILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Quakers Cover

8.1%

Wildcats Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VILL -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VILL)

PENN By 1-7 points

5.8%

PENN By 8-14 points

1.4%

VILL By 1-7 points

16.9%

VILL By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
75
PENNSYLVANIA
89
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
67
PENNSYLVANIA
78
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 PENN @ VILL 63 - 90
Nov 19, 2024 PENN @ VILL 49 - 93
Nov 13, 2023 VILL @ PENN 72 - 76
Dec 7, 2022 PENN @ VILL 59 - 70
Dec 1, 2021 VILL @ PENN 71 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +9.8% more
Villanova: 15.5 vs Pennsylvania: 14.1
Rebounding (L5) +8.7% more
Villanova: 38.6 vs Pennsylvania: 35.5
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Villanova: 48.1% vs Pennsylvania: 43.3%
Blocks (L5) +51.4% more
Pennsylvania: 3.2 vs Villanova: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PENN Score 75.0 63
VILL Score 89.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 37.4 48.0 / 50.0
Assists 15.5 / 14.1 20.0 / 19.0
Blocks 1.6 / 3.2 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 43.3 55.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 68.4 / 69.3 69.0 / 33.0
Rebounding 38.6 / 35.5 38.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.2 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 11.1 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PENN
--
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PENN
--
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PENN
--
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
PENN
VILL
PENN
ML
44% 14-18
53% 16-14
72% 23-9
76% 22-7
ATS
56% 18-14
63% 19-11
72% 23-9
76% 22-7
TTL
41% 13-19
70% 21-9
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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