Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bonnies @ Bulls SBU @ BUF

ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

9-1  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 2:00 PM ET
Alumni Arena
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BULLSBUF

8-1  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
100%
📊
BULLS
0%
BONNIES --
BULLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Buffalo)
BonniesSBU (-3.5) 0 BullsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bonnies Cover

0.6%

Bulls Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUF -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

SBU By 1-7 points

0.5%

SBU By 8-14 points

0.1%

BUF By 1-7 points

3.3%

BUF By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
58
ST. BONAVENTURE
83
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
68
ST. BONAVENTURE
72
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulls Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulls (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Bulls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 SBU @ BUF 77 - 69
Dec 7, 2024 BUF @ SBU 55 - 65
Dec 2, 2023 SBU @ BUF 80 - 65
Dec 3, 2022 SBU @ BUF 66 - 83
Dec 4, 2021 BUF @ SBU 65 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +9.4%
Buffalo: 78.0% vs St. Bonaventure: 68.5%
Blocks (L5) +49.1% more
St. Bonaventure: 7.0 vs Buffalo: 3.6
Assists (L5) +26.2% more
St. Bonaventure: 17.6 vs Buffalo: 13.0
Turnovers (L5) +15.9% more
St. Bonaventure: 11.5 vs Buffalo: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SBU Score 58.0 77
BUF Score 83.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 38.4 38.0 / 38.0
Assists 13.0 / 17.6 14.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.6 / 7.0 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 48.7 54.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 78.0 / 68.5 64.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 36.3 21.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.1 / 8.8 6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 11.5 17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
BUF Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
BUF Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
SBU
BUF
SBU
ML
45% 14-17
59% 20-14
45% 14-17
61% 20-13
ATS
55% 17-14
50% 17-17
45% 14-17
61% 20-13
TTL
48% 15-16
38% 13-21
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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