NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
7-3 | Road
77
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
5-6 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
NORSE
100%
MASTODONS
0%
NORSE
--
MASTODONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Purdue Fort Wayne)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PFW -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PFW)
NKU By 1-7 points
6.8%
NKU By 8-14 points
1.7%
PFW By 1-7 points
18.6%
PFW By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Kentucky
71
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Purdue Fort Wayne
84
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Simulated Score
Northern Kentucky
73
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Purdue Fort Wayne
78
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mastodons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mastodons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mastodons (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Mastodons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
PFW @ NKU
71 - 87
Dec 6, 2025
NKU @ PFW
77 - 79
Feb 27, 2025
NKU @ PFW
79 - 74
Jan 1, 2025
PFW @ NKU
68 - 69
Jan 25, 2024
PFW @ NKU
63 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+11.8% more
Northern Kentucky: 12.0
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 10.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.3%
Northern Kentucky: 81.8%
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 74.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NKU Score
71.0
77
PFW Score
84.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.7 / 39.2
47.0 / 29.0
Assists
16.5 / 16.5
15.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.8 / 5.1
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.9 / 49.2
49.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
74.5 / 81.8
64.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 32.7
34.0 / 36.0
Steals
9.6 / 10.4
12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 12.0
18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NKU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
PFW
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NKU
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
PFW
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PFW
NKU
PFW
NKU
ML
59%
19-13
53%
18-16
74%
23-8
65%
22-12
ATS
62%
20-12
56%
19-15
74%
23-8
65%
22-12
TTL
59%
19-13
68%
23-11
100%
31-0
100%
34-0