Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Broncos @ Bulldogs BOIS @ BUT

BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

6-3  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 2:00 PM ET
Hinkle Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

7-2  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
BRONCOS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Boise State)
BroncosBOIS (-3.5) 0 BulldogsBUT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

90.3%

Bulldogs Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOIS -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

BOIS By 1-7 points

18.6%

BOIS By 8-14 points

26.8%

BUT By 1-7 points

6.8%

BUT By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
75
BOISE STATE
62
BUTLER
Simulated Score
68
BOISE STATE
72
BUTLER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 BOIS @ BUT 77 - 68
Apr 2, 2025 BUT @ BOIS 93 - 100
Nov 26, 2023 BUT @ BOIS 70 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.3% more
Boise State: 13.5 vs Butler: 11.6
Free Throw % (L5) +5.0%
Boise State: 73.5% vs Butler: 68.5%
Blocks (L5) +75.0% more
Butler: 4.3 vs Boise State: 2.4
Steals (L5) +65.7% more
Butler: 7.1 vs Boise State: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 75.0 77
BUT Score 62.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.7 / 33.8 22.0 / 27.0
Assists 16.6 / 14.7 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.4 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 46.1 45.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 73.5 59.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 40.9 31.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.1 / 4.3 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 13.5 8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUT
BOIS
BUT
BOIS
ML
62% 20-12
50% 16-16
65% 20-11
61% 19-12
ATS
56% 18-14
50% 16-16
65% 20-11
61% 19-12
TTL
50% 16-16
56% 18-14
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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