Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buckeyes @ Wildcats OSU @ NU

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

7-1  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 2:00 PM ET
Welsh-Ryan Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

WILDCATSNU

5-4  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKEYES
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
BUCKEYES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Northwestern)
BuckeyesOSU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsNU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buckeyes Cover

8.1%

Wildcats Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)

OSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

OSU By 8-14 points

1.4%

NU By 1-7 points

16.9%

NU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
35
OHIO STATE
49
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
74
OHIO STATE
69
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buckeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Buckeyes (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 84.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 OSU @ NU 86 - 82
Feb 20, 2025 NU @ OSU 70 - 49
Jan 27, 2024 OSU @ NU 58 - 83
Feb 9, 2023 NU @ OSU 69 - 63
Jan 1, 2023 OSU @ NU 73 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +51.1% more
Northwestern: 3.4 vs Ohio State: 2.3
Assists (L5) +17.4% more
Northwestern: 17.1 vs Ohio State: 14.6
Rebounding (L5) +17.3% more
Ohio State: 39.0 vs Northwestern: 32.2
Steals (L5) +14.6% more
Ohio State: 5.5 vs Northwestern: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 35.0 86
NU Score 49.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 35.0 33.0 / 29.0
Assists 17.1 / 14.6 21.0 / 24.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.3 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 49.6 48.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 82.5 89.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 39.0 34.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.7 / 5.5 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 11.1 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
NU
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
NU
16-16-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
OSU
NU
OSU
ML
47% 16-18
53% 18-16
68% 23-11
73% 24-9
ATS
50% 17-17
59% 20-14
68% 23-11
73% 24-9
TTL
53% 18-16
56% 19-15
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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