Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Golden Hurricane MOST @ TLSA

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

4-4  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 3:00 PM ET
Reynolds Center
View Odds Details →

TULSA

GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA

8-1  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
BEARS --
GOLDEN HURRICANE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tulsa)
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 Golden HurricaneTLSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

46.0%

Golden Hurricane Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TLSA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)

MOST By 1-7 points

24.3%

MOST By 8-14 points

13.7%

TLSA By 1-7 points

26.2%

TLSA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MISSOURI STATE
66
TULSA
Simulated Score
71
MISSOURI STATE
74
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Hurricane Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Hurricane Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Hurricane (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Golden Hurricane (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 MOST @ TLSA 74 - 98
Nov 16, 2024 TLSA @ MOST 106 - 111
Dec 16, 2023 MOST @ TLSA 72 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +29.7% more
Tulsa: 17.1 vs Missouri State: 13.2
Rebounding (L5) +26.3% more
Tulsa: 43.5 vs Missouri State: 34.5
Free Throw % (L5) +8.7%
Tulsa: 78.5% vs Missouri State: 69.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
Tulsa: 37.0% vs Missouri State: 29.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 65.0 74
TLSA Score 66.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 29.4 42.0 / 50.0
Assists 17.1 / 13.2 19.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.8 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 44.9 48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 69.8 80.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 43.5 / 34.5 42.0 / 26.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.6 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.5 / 10.4 7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
TLSA Advantage
30-8-0 (79.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
TLSA
20-15-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
MOST
TLSA
MOST
ML
66% 25-13
65% 22-12
64% 23-13
62% 21-13
ATS
74% 28-10
68% 23-11
64% 23-13
62% 21-13
TTL
58% 22-16
44% 15-19
100% 36-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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