IDAHO
VANDALSIDHO
6-3 | Road
84
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
5-5 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
VANDALS
0%
JACKRABBITS
100%
VANDALS
--
JACKRABBITS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
IDAHO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Idaho)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IDHO -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDHO)
IDHO By 1-7 points
26.8%
IDHO By 8-14 points
24.3%
SDST By 1-7 points
16.9%
SDST By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Idaho
86
IDAHO
South Dakota State
80
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
Idaho
67
IDAHO
South Dakota State
78
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Vandals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jackrabbits
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Vandals (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Jackrabbits (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
IDHO @ SDST
84 - 81
Dec 8, 2021
SDST @ IDHO
84 - 98
Dec 21, 2019
IDHO @ SDST
57 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+30.7% more
Idaho: 2.0
vs
South Dakota State: 1.4
Assists (L5)
+14.4% more
Idaho: 15.4
vs
South Dakota State: 13.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.6%
Idaho: 37.9%
vs
South Dakota State: 27.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Idaho: 46.5%
vs
South Dakota State: 41.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score
86.0
84
SDST Score
80.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.2 / 37.9
33.0 / 39.0
Assists
13.1 / 15.4
8.0 / 11.0
Blocks
1.4 / 2.0
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
41.2 / 46.5
47.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
69.7 / 74.8
73.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
38.5 / 34.6
30.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.4 / 5.8
4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 11.6
5.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO
Advantage
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDST
IDHO
SDST
IDHO
ML
75%
24-8
56%
20-16
53%
17-15
64%
21-12
ATS
78%
25-7
58%
21-15
53%
17-15
64%
21-12
TTL
53%
17-15
69%
25-11
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
