Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Patriots @ Hokies GMU @ VT

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

9-1  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 3:00 PM ET
Cassell Coliseum
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

HOKIESVT

8-2  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
0%
📊
HOKIES
100%
PATRIOTS --
HOKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GEORGE MASON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (George Mason)
PatriotsGMU (-3.5) 0 HokiesVT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

54.0%

Hokies Cover

46.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GMU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GMU)

GMU By 1-7 points

26.2%

GMU By 8-14 points

16.9%

VT By 1-7 points

24.3%

VT By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
61
GEORGE MASON
60
VIRGINIA TECH
Simulated Score
68
GEORGE MASON
77
VIRGINIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Patriots Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hokies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Patriots (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Hokies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 GMU @ VT 62 - 73
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.6%
George Mason: 45.3% vs Virginia Tech: 32.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +8.7%
George Mason: 77.3% vs Virginia Tech: 68.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.8%
George Mason: 52.5% vs Virginia Tech: 44.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GMU Score 61.0 62
VT Score 60.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 45.3 36.0 / 33.0
Assists 14.8 / 14.9 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.8 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 52.5 47.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 68.6 / 77.3 77.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 34.8 27.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.4 / 6.0 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 10.6 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
VT
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GMU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
VT Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
GMU
VT
GMU
ML
53% 17-15
55% 18-15
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
ATS
59% 19-13
55% 18-15
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
TTL
69% 22-10
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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