DAYTON
FLYERSDAY
7-3 | Road
73
VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
8-1 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
FLYERS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Virginia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)
DAY By 1-7 points
6.8%
DAY By 8-14 points
1.7%
UVA By 1-7 points
18.6%
UVA By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Dayton
80
DAYTON
Virginia
93
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
Dayton
65
DAYTON
Virginia
68
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
DAY @ UVA
73 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+35.4% more
Virginia: 6.5
vs
Dayton: 4.8
Rebounding (L5)
+19.6% more
Virginia: 39.1
vs
Dayton: 32.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
Virginia: 41.2%
vs
Dayton: 35.4%
Steals (L5)
+40.3% more
Dayton: 10.1
vs
Virginia: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAY Score
80.0
73
UVA Score
93.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.2 / 35.4
60.0 / 30.0
Assists
16.5 / 16.0
21.0 / 11.0
Blocks
6.5 / 4.8
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 48.4
60.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
67.4 / 68.1
74.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
39.1 / 32.7
41.0 / 25.0
Steals
6.0 / 10.1
6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 13.8
21.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
UVA
Advantage
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9%
Total +/-: -2.7
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
DAY
UVA
DAY
ML
67%
24-12
65%
24-13
72%
26-10
64%
23-13
ATS
75%
27-9
68%
25-12
72%
26-10
64%
23-13
TTL
53%
19-17
57%
21-16
100%
36-0
100%
36-0
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