Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Hurricanes USM @ MIA

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

5-4  |  Road

64
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 12:00 PM ET
Watsco Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HURRICANESMIA

8-2  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
HURRICANES
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
HURRICANES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Miami)
Golden EaglesUSM (-3.5) 0 HurricanesMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

5.5%

Hurricanes Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

USM By 1-7 points

4.0%

USM By 8-14 points

0.8%

MIA By 1-7 points

13.7%

MIA By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
70
SOUTHERN MISS
86
MIAMI
Simulated Score
69
SOUTHERN MISS
78
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hurricanes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hurricanes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hurricanes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Hurricanes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 USM @ MIA 64 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +35.1% more
Miami: 16.0 vs Southern Miss: 11.8
Turnovers (L5) +23.3% more
Miami: 14.3 vs Southern Miss: 11.6
Steals (L5) +19.6% more
Miami: 8.0 vs Southern Miss: 6.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.1%
Miami: 42.4% vs Southern Miss: 30.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 70.0 64
MIA Score 86.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.4 / 30.4 35.0 / 23.0
Assists 16.0 / 11.8 20.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.4 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.8 / 47.8 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 64.1 / 69.8 71.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 40.2 / 40.7 39.0 / 32.0
Steals 8.0 / 6.7 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 11.6 14.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA Advantage
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA Advantage
18-15-1 (54.6%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
MIA
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
USM
MIA
USM
ML
63% 22-13
53% 18-16
64% 21-12
73% 24-9
ATS
63% 22-13
59% 20-14
64% 21-12
74% 25-9
TTL
63% 22-13
68% 23-11
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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