STONY BROOK
SEAWOLVESSTBK
6-3 | Road
75
DUQUESNE
DUKESDUQ
6-3 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
SEAWOLVES
0%
DUKES
100%
SEAWOLVES
--
DUKES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
DUQUESNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DUQ +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUQ)
STBK By 1-7 points
27.2%
STBK By 8-14 points
20.1%
DUQ By 1-7 points
21.6%
DUQ By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Stony Brook
86
STONY BROOK
Duquesne
83
DUQUESNE
Simulated Score
Stony Brook
70
STONY BROOK
Duquesne
75
DUQUESNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Seawolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dukes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Dukes (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Dukes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
STBK @ DUQ
75 - 84
Nov 13, 2023
STBK @ DUQ
63 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+28.2% more
Stony Brook: 3.4
vs
Duquesne: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.9%
Stony Brook: 75.0%
vs
Duquesne: 70.1%
Turnovers (L5)
+60.0% more
Duquesne: 18.0
vs
Stony Brook: 11.2
Assists (L5)
+46.3% more
Duquesne: 16.5
vs
Stony Brook: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STBK Score
86.0
75
DUQ Score
83.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 33.5
41.0 / 33.0
Assists
16.5 / 11.3
18.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.4 / 3.4
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
52.4 / 41.8
47.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 75.0
73.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
34.0 / 31.3
41.0 / 34.0
Steals
9.5 / 8.1
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
18.0 / 11.2
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STBK
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
DUQ
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STBK
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
DUQ
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUQ
STBK
DUQ
STBK
ML
53%
17-15
61%
19-12
58%
18-13
71%
22-9
ATS
69%
22-10
61%
19-12
58%
18-13
71%
22-9
TTL
50%
16-16
65%
20-11
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
