Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rockets @ Golden Grizzlies TOL @ OAK

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

5-3  |  Road

97
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 3:00 PM ET
OU Credit Union O'rena
View Odds Details →

OAKLAND

GOLDEN GRIZZLIESOAK

4-5  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
100%
ROCKETS --
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-56.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +56.0 points (Toledo)
RocketsTOL (-3.5) 0 Golden GrizzliesOAK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

100.0%

Golden Grizzlies Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOL -56.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

TOL By 1-7 points

0.0%

TOL By 8-14 points

0.0%

OAK By 1-7 points

0.0%

OAK By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
116
TOLEDO
60
OAKLAND
Simulated Score
72
TOLEDO
75
OAKLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -56.0
D
Sim Golden Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 TOL @ OAK 97 - 98
Nov 30, 2024 OAK @ TOL 85 - 52
Dec 6, 2023 TOL @ OAK 69 - 68
Nov 16, 2022 OAK @ TOL 90 - 112
Nov 17, 2021 TOL @ OAK 59 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +24.5% more
Toledo: 9.0 vs Oakland: 6.8
Free Throw % (L5) +4.3%
Toledo: 78.2% vs Oakland: 73.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Oakland: 36.4% vs Toledo: 33.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Oakland: 50.7% vs Toledo: 48.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 116.0 97
OAK Score 60.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 33.0 33.0 / 19.0
Assists 18.7 / 17.9 23.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.7 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.7 / 48.8 56.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 78.2 70.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 38.7 28.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.8 / 9.0 11.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 11.0 5.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
OAK
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
OAK
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
OAK
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OAK
TOL
OAK
TOL
ML
62% 20-12
48% 16-17
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
ATS
50% 16-16
48% 16-17
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
TTL
62% 20-12
64% 21-12
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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