MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
6-3 | Road
64
IOWA
HAWKEYESIOWA
7-1 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
TERRAPINS
0%
HAWKEYES
100%
TERRAPINS
--
HAWKEYES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IOWA +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)
MD By 1-7 points
27.4%
MD By 8-14 points
21.6%
IOWA By 1-7 points
20.1%
IOWA By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland
75
MARYLAND
Iowa
71
IOWA
Simulated Score
Maryland
72
MARYLAND
Iowa
76
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Terrapins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawkeyes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawkeyes (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Hawkeyes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.0
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u138.0
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
MD @ IOWA
64 - 75
Feb 11, 2026
IOWA @ MD
70 - 77
Dec 6, 2025
MD @ IOWA
64 - 83
Feb 16, 2025
IOWA @ MD
75 - 101
Feb 14, 2024
IOWA @ MD
66 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+49.7% more
Maryland: 2.9
vs
Iowa: 1.5
Rebounding (L5)
+29.0% more
Maryland: 38.4
vs
Iowa: 27.3
Turnovers (L5)
+13.7% more
Maryland: 11.7
vs
Iowa: 10.1
Assists (L5)
+16.4% more
Iowa: 13.6
vs
Maryland: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MD Score
75.0
64
IOWA Score
71.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 29.2
50.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.6 / 11.7
19.0 / 7.0
Blocks
1.5 / 2.9
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 40.0
54.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 71.1
50.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
27.3 / 38.4
32.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.4
12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 11.7
10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
IOWA
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
IOWA
Advantage
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
MD
IOWA
MD
ML
59%
22-15
70%
23-10
78%
28-8
67%
22-11
ATS
76%
28-9
64%
21-12
78%
28-8
67%
22-11
TTL
57%
21-16
64%
21-12
100%
36-0
100%
33-0
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