Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Celtics LAL @ BOS

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

16-5  |  Road

105
FINAL
Fri, Dec 5 • 7:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

13-9  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
LAKERS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Boston)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

0.1%

Celtics Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

LAL By 1-7 points

0.1%

LAL By 8-14 points

0.0%

BOS By 1-7 points

1.1%

BOS By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
100
LOS ANGELES
130
BOSTON
Simulated Score
115
LOS ANGELES
118
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o228.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim u228.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 BOS @ LAL 111 - 89
Dec 5, 2025 LAL @ BOS 105 - 126
Mar 8, 2025 LAL @ BOS 101 - 111
Jan 23, 2025 BOS @ LAL 96 - 117
Feb 1, 2024 LAL @ BOS 114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +81.4% more
Boston: 9.7 vs Los Angeles: 5.4
Blocks (L5) +18.4% more
Boston: 5.8 vs Los Angeles: 4.9
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
Boston: 43.5 vs Los Angeles: 39.7
Turnovers (L5) +17.6% more
Los Angeles: 14.2 vs Boston: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 100.0 105
BOS Score 130.0 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 40.3 53.0 / 40.0
Assists 25.9 / 24.4 31.0 / 15.0
Blocks 5.8 / 4.9 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 52.3 / 51.2 55.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 81.1 / 84.5 83.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 43.5 / 39.7 38.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.7 / 5.4 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 14.2 16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
LAL
BOS
LAL
ML
57% 61-46
61% 68-43
53% 47-41
54% 49-42
ATS
59% 61-43-3
61% 67-43-1
53% 47-41
54% 49-42
TTL
56% 60-47
61% 66-43-2
100% 88-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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